Liquor-making industry in 2013 will no doubt is colder, but also will become a liquor enterprise in the second quarter of this year, the most cold season.

Emperor Taiwan industry earnings forecast, on July 15, in the first half net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected loss about 500000 yuan, the basic earnings per share loss of about 0.003 yuan. Liquor in spite of the A shares in the listed company, the emperor's performance has always been the "bottom", but the period of losses still says the liquor enterprise expected "embarrassment" performance of the first half of the facts.

Since the second half of last year, in the wave of plasticizer, restrictions on "three consumption", a slow economic recovery and a series of negative impact, had previously of liquor enterprise management and performance under pressure, the results from many wine enterprise negative situation in the second quarter to continue "fermentation".

The industry believe that experienced in the first quarter after falling, quantity and price of wine industry in the second quarter into a period of difficult to inventory, in the process of industry "seek the bottom", the report will be more "ugly" wine companies. But with pessimistic expectations of cash and stepwise dilution, consumption in the second half of the industry is expected to be improved, with "double festival coming liquor has entered the stage of slow recovery.

The line continued differentiation center daily news

A line of wine companies this year, a quarterly results showed that guizhou moutai's operating income and net profit growth rate are 19.11% and 19.11% respectively; Wuliangye revenue and net profit growth rate of 5.41%, 18.91% respectively; Luzhou laojiao (a kind of daqu liquor) revenue and net profit growth rate of 3.36% and 11.64% respectively.

"We expect the center daily news MAO lugu situation with a quarterly performance differentiation in five time difference is not too much. Have improved significantly in the second quarter of maotai, wuliangye, luzhou laojiao (a kind of daqu liquor) affected by price volume terminal recovery is not obvious." One industry source said.

Citic built for yellow FuSheng also pointed out that a line of white wine, maotai showed strong viscosity "brand power" and consumption, a PiJia rebounded in May, the terminal pin are healthier and dealer inventories index, expected earnings growth center daily news in 25 ~ 30%; Pits and wuliangye and countries in the field of business consumption has certain market, but wuliangye size is larger, relying too much on high end, in the high-end market in the whole plate atrophy following force is insufficient, the cellar to support prices at the expense of sales, short-term obvious impact on performance, and is expected to wuliangye and reported for luzhou aged pit growth rate of 5 ~ 10% and 10% respectively.

At the same time, the industry also thinks, high-end liquor fundamentals "bottom", quarter-on-quarter growth will continue to improve.

Since may this year, due to the price of a high-end liquor super down to stimulate terminal purchase intention, the stability of the control and manufacturers of goods strategy for dealers confidence, showed signs of stabilising picks up, high-end liquor maotai, wuliangye prices take a small step back at the same time, sales also gradually enlarged.

"At present the number of suppliers and stores of maotai price is 1000 yuan, according to my knowledge, maotai terminal and bulk prices maintained in 1100 yuan of above, part of the circulation thrown out goods slightly lower, because of the small and medium-sized distributors but also maintained in 950 yuan." Beijing toward the group of commerce and trade co., LTD. Deputy managing director Sun Wenhui said.

Sun Wenhui also thinks, high-end liquor prices are gradually returning to common people to accept the price, so the sales recovery and price stability is also a kind of inevitable.

One industry source said, liquor consumption are out of season in July and August, maotai wholesale price is expected to support in one thousand yuan, dealer inventories remain at a reasonable level, then enter the peak season, will significantly improve pin annulus, prices also rose slightly.

In addition, luzhou laojiao (a kind of daqu liquor) and the recent hike in countries pits the terminal retail price of 1573, from RMB 1389 / bottle raised to 1589 yuan/bottle, up 14.4%. Its factory price also will be increased, high wine will rise from 889 yuan to 999 yuan, raised 110 yuan per bottle, low-alcohol wine from 749 yuan to 839 yuan, bottle raised 90 yuan.

Second - and third-tier collective negative growth

Emperor Taiwan liquor in explain why performance forecast kui said, in the first half of 2013, liquor-making industry into the adjustment period, the market competition intensifies, make operating income during the reporting period compared with the same period last year declined, net profit losses.

Like huang table wine, for second - and third-tier liquor enterprises, adjust the liquor industry brings negative effect is more apparent.

TuoPai willing to part with or use recently released the interim results announcement reduction, half-yearly net profit is expected to reduce 80%, compared with the same period last year the company net profit of about 186 million yuan. In the first quarter of this year, TuoPai willing to performance decline, net income of 57.5349 million yuan, down 48.48% year-on-year. Accordingly, in the second quarter TuoPai losses of about 20 million yuan.

TuoPai willing to part with or use, said in 2013 due to the control of "three consumption", the influence of the military commission "prohibition" and other decrees, high-end products of the company's sales decline, resulting in a decline in operating income and net profit. At the same time because of the company to increase the intensity of product promotion, sales cost increase from the same period a year earlier, to lower the company's net profit a year earlier.

Drunkard wine preliminary results also show that, for liquor-making industry into the adjustment period, the company showed a sharp decline in the first half of the income and expected net profit of 28 million yuan to 33 million yuan, falling by 87% ~ 89%. In the first quarter this year drunkard wine net profit of 10.1 million yuan, down 91% year-on-year.

A quarterly reports, including alcoholic liquor, sichuan blue-sword medco, tuopai willing to part with or use, shui jing fang, emperor Taiwan liquor, four lower-tier wine enterprise performance is negative, yanghe shares, the special net profit growth of single digits. Industry forecasts of this kind of bad situation will continue to a half annual report, most of the second - and third-tier wine companies into collective low growth and negative growth trends.

"On the price of it, the wine is really bad at present, the original good follow suit to do all the time in the high-end market, is now under the high-end wine such as maotai wuliangye extrusion, decrease in the prices of the same level of consumers will choose drink maotai wuliangye." Sun Wenhui said.

Everbright securities XingTingZhi argues that regional liquor enterprise in the revenue, expense ratio, continue to face greater pressure on gross margins. Among them, low growth and negative pressure on revenue, regional brands rely on past growth: escalating prices, lack of leading companies strong competition. And the two assumptions have changed, increased difficulties of structure upgrade, and at the same time facing structural reversion, areas for further expansion. In addition, as the industry's growth is slowing, competition intensified, the fee will continue to rise, the gross profit margin on regional wine expected continued down slightly.

"Bottom out" mid or rebound in the second half year

Wine prices this year and a half annals, though it undoubtedly will be the article source into years huaxia wine low, however, the industry also pointed out that as the worst performance gradually revealed, pessimistic expectations will gradually get cash and dilution, consumption in the second half of the industry is expected to be improved, with "double festival coming liquor enterprises will also be stabilised" dip ", in a slow recovery.

"I still bullish in the second half, from the industry and market perspective, the normal business and liquor consumption will be improved with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn festival, the 11, at least in the second half will not worse than the first half. But how to ensure the stability of price system is the key factor." Sun Wenhui said.

According to citic built for yellow FuSheng, as deeply rooted in China for thousands of years of traditional culture of collateral, for the future development of liquor should hold "optimistic" attitude. Along with the economic recovery gradually, the rise of the personal consumption of liquor will also enter a benign and healthy growth, the growth level is still obvious advantages in the economy as a whole. In the second quarter is the bottom of this round of adjustment, reflect the performance of the center daily news, the worst industry with "double festival approaching, on improving the situation more sure, after enter the stage of slow recovery.

FuSheng huang pointed out that, although the adjustment of liquor-making industry won't happen overnight, adjust the end more depends on the overall improvement of the economic situation and the recovery of domestic demand, is expected to take 2 ~ 3 years. But for the enterprise, adjust time has problem, have impact the size of the problem, with growth problems.

Another in the industry also said that in the first half part of liquor-making industry overdo some practices may be a certain correction in the second half of the year, liquor in the second half of the season, in accordance with the brand in order to recover down the momentum, the industry to maintain positive growth is great probability.